2019 Forecast Recap

 


Posted on February 8, 2019 at 7:25 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Uncategorized |

Market Strong

5 Reasons Rising Interest Rates Won’t Wreck the Housing Market

Interest rates have been trending higher since the fall of 2017, and I fully expect they will continue in that direction – albeit relatively slowly – as we move through the balance of the year and into 2019. So what does this mean for the US housing market?

It might come as a surprise to learn that I really don’t think rising interest rates will have a major impact on the housing market. Here is my reasoning:

1. First Time Home Buyers 

As interest rates rise, I expect more buyers to get off the fence and into the market; specifically, first time buyers who, according to Freddie Mac, made up nearly half of new mortgages in the first quarter of this year. First-time buyers are critical to the overall health of the housing market because of the subsequent chain reaction of sales that result so this is actually a positive outcome of rising rates.

2. Easing Credit Standards

Rising interest rates may actually push some lenders to modestly ease credit standards. I know this statement will cause some people to think that easing credit will immediately send us back to the days of sub-prime lending and housing bubbles, but I don’t see this happening. Even a very modest easing of credit will allow for more than one million new home buyers to qualify for a mortgage.

3. Low Unemployment 

We stand today in a country with very low unemployment (currently 4.0% and likely to get close to 3.5% by year’s end). Low unemployment rates encourage employers to raise wages to keep existing talent, as well as to recruit new talent. Wage growth can, to a degree, offset increasing interest rates because, as wages rise, buyers can afford higher mortgage payments.

4. Supply

There is a clear relationship between housing supply, home prices, and interest rates. We’re already seeing a shift in inventory levels with more homes coming on the market, and I fully expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. This increase in supply is, in part, a result of homeowners looking to cash in on their home’s appreciation before interest rates rise too far. This, on its own, will help ease the growth of home prices and offset rising interest rates. Furthermore, if we start to see more new construction activity at the lower end of the market, this too will help.

National versus Local

Up until this point, I’ve looked at how rising interest rates might impact the housing market on a national level, but as we all know, real estate is local, and different markets react to shifts in different ways. For example, rising interest rates will be felt more in expensive housing markets, such as San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, and Orange County, but I expect to see less impact in areas like Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburg, and Detroit, where buyers spend a lower percentage of their incomes on housing. The exception to this would be if interest rates continue to rise for a prolonged period; in that case, we might see demand start to taper off, especially in the less expensive housing markets where buyers are more price sensitive.

For more than seven years, home buyers and real estate professionals alike have grown very accustomed to historically low interest rates. We always knew the time would come when they would begin to rise again, but that doesn’t mean the outlook for housing is doom and gloom. On the contrary, I believe rising interest rates will help bring us closer to a more balanced real estate market, something that is sorely needed in many markets across the country.

Posted on September 21, 2018 at 7:26 am
Fort Collins | Posted in Economy | Tagged 

Posted on September 21, 2018 at 3:03 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Uncategorized |

Stunning 2 Story Home with Sun-room in Fort Collins!

The southern exposure sun room is just one of the highlights of this 2 story home at 707 McGraw Dr in the Coventry subdivision. Walking distance to McGraw Elementary School Front Range Community College. Lots of room to spread out – 4 bedrooms & a large loft upstairs. Nonconforming 5th bedroom on the main level. Master suite features radiant floor heating in the 5-piece bath, large walk-in closet & fireplace. Great landscaping with HOA maintained greenspace to the east which makes property look even bigger. Contact me for your private showing at 970-215-1013 or click the link below for more details.

http://housetohomemd.com/listing/78133744


Posted on April 20, 2018 at 7:24 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Fort Collins Real Estate, Virtual Tour | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Final Four

At the end of this weekend College Basketball’s Final 4 will be established. It might make you wonder, what the top 4 and bottom 4 real estate markets across the country?

Here they are, ranked by the last 12 months of appreciation according to fhfa.gov:

Top 4:

  1. Tacoma, WA 14.6%
  2. Seattle, WA 14.3%
  3. Port St. Lucie, FL 13.7%
  4. Las Vegas, NV 13.6%

Bottom 4:

  1. Atlantic City, NJ -3.14%
  2. Peoria, IL -3.0%
  3. Huntington, WV -2.6%
  4. Jackson, MS -1.2%

If you’d like to receive our monthly newsletter with local Northern Colorado real estate updates, just contact us at noco@windermere.com or simply call (970) 460-3033. You can also receive a neighborhood news update and see all the sales in your neighborhood by clicking HERE.


Posted on March 23, 2018 at 8:20 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , ,

Focus on Fort Collins

  • The average single-family home price is $436,275 and is 8.4% higher than last year.
  • There have been 6.4% more transactions this year compared to last year.
  • The number of new homes that have hit the market is down 7.5% compared to last year.
  • On average, it takes 83 days to sell a single-family home which is 9 days faster than a year ago.
  • The average price for multi-family (townhouse, condo, etc.) is $290,971 which is 5.8% higher than last year.

If you have ever thought about investing in Fort Collins or in anywhere else in Colorado, but you weren’t sure how to get started, the investment webinar we created can help you out. Click HERE or the image below to get started!

Windermere Workshop - Investing in Real Estate


Posted on March 19, 2018 at 3:49 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged

10,000 SHORT

Northern Colorado isn’t the only place with limited inventory.

Metro Denver is short by 10,000 listings.

The average number of homes for sale for this time of year in the Denver area, going all the way back to 1985, is 14,309.

Right now there are 4,084 residential properties on the market. This is a difference of 10,225 listings compared to the long-term average.

The peak was 2008 when there were 25,037 listings. The lowest year was last year with 3,878 (a drop of 21,159 in 9 years?!).

The good news for buyers is that inventory is up 5% compared to last year. Another piece of good news is that the Spring tends to produce the highest amount of inventory for buyers to pick from.


Posted on March 12, 2018 at 3:12 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

Luxury Leaps in sales in 2017

One of our favorite sources of data is the Fort Collins Board of Realtors monthly market report. Their newest release of information showed some interesting numbers on the luxury market and a confirmation of other statistics we are tracking.

The Luxury market is way up over last year.

In the greater Fort Collins area over the last 12 months, sales of single family homes priced between $1 million and $2 million, have leaped up 79% over last year. 24 total sales last year compared to 43 this year.

We included a screen shot from the report below…

We will take a deeper dive and closer look at the luxury market across all of Northern Colorado in our upcoming December Windermere Report (if you don’t already receive this monthly printed newsletter in your mailbox, let us know and we will add you to the list. Just contact us HERE.) 

Quarterly Market Report
Posted on November 17, 2017 at 10:00 am
Fort Collins | Posted in EconomyFort Collins Real Estate  | Tagged 

Posted on November 17, 2017 at 6:49 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Uncategorized |

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.8%. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, annual employment growth was seen in all areas other than Grand Junction (where employment was stable) with substantial growth seen in Fort Collins (4.6%) and Greeley (3.5%).

In August, the unemployment rate in the state was 2.2%, down from 3.1% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were again seen in Fort Collins at just 1.8%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, at a very respectable 3.0%. It is still reasonable to assume that all the markets contained within this report will see above-average wage growth given the very tight labor market.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • There were 17,140 home sales during the third quarter of 2017, which was a drop of 3.3% from the same period in 2016.
  • Sales rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 4% more than the third quarter of 2016. There were marginal increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all the other counties contained within this report.
  • Home sales slowed due to very low levels of available inventory. Listing activity continues to trend at well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the third quarter 5.5% below the level seen a year ago.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth has stalled due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • With substantial competition for the few available homes, prices continue to rise. Average prices were up 7.5% year-over-year to a regional average of $428,602.
  • Slower appreciation in home values was again seen in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 12%.
  • Due to an ongoing imbalance between supply and demand, home prices will continue to appreciate at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by one day when compared to the third quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out as it took an average of just two weeks to sell a home there.
  • During the third quarter, it took an average of 20 days to sell a home. This is up by 3 days compared to the second quarter of this year.
  • Demand remains strong, and well-positioned, well-priced homes continue to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

In the third quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the second quarter. Homes are still scarce; however, there is a small slowdown in price growth and a decline in both closed and pending sales. This may suggest the market is either getting weary of all the competition or that would-be buyers are possibly putting off buying until they see more choices in the number of homes for sale.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

 

 

 

If you are in the market to buy or sell, we can connect you with an experienced agent here.


Posted on November 14, 2017 at 8:28 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Economics, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , ,

Greeley is looking really good!

The Greeley market is about to hit a major milestone.

We project that in the first quarter of 2018, the average price for a single family home in Greeley will surpass $300,000.

Today the average price sits at $289,870.

Just a year ago it was $262,828.

Guess when Greeley broke the $200,000 barrier? It was only about 3 years ago in June 2014.

So what ‘s going on?

Double-digit price appreciation is being fueled by a healthy Northern Colorado economy, low interest rates and local affordability. Greeley prices can look really attractive compared to Fort Collins.

We don’t see anything on the horizon that will significantly change the trajectory of the Greeley market. It is a fundamentally a very strong place to own real estate.

For a detailed look at what ‘s happening across Colorado, request our quarterly market report called “The Gardner Report“, written by Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. You can download it HERE.


Posted on September 25, 2017 at 8:24 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Booming Real Estate, Colorado, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged ,

Windshire Home With A Bi-Level Deck

Beautiful home on large fenced lot in the popular Windshire neighborhood. Lots of space to entertain, inside and out. The bedrooms are large and the closet/storage space abounds. Owner’s suite boasts a soaking tub and walk-in closet. 2nd bedroom has attached bath and large walk-in closet. 2-level deck built to enjoy the outdoors and large fenced yard. 1 year home warranty provided!

For more information, please visit: http://housetohomemd.com/listing/66503986 or call Maria Dellota at (970) 460-3033.

 


Posted on September 11, 2017 at 10:55 pm
Maria Dellota | Posted in Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,